Global Market Surferby INTAGE Inc

Fast-growing Asian countries, what will they be like in 10 years?　Market predictions from industry experts

Asian countries are growing rapidly. What kind of changes are expected in the future? Intage researchers stationed in the Asian countries of Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and India conducted interviews with industry experts working in the region. Based on our own analysis, we have made predictions for each country three years and ten years from now.

In this article, we will introduce the results of the survey in India and the trends that were seen in all four countries.

Asian sei-katsu-sha needs "three keywords"

Before conducting the interview survey, local researchers in the four countries discussed and extracted the "purchase focus points" from which sei-katsu-sha are likely to select products these days, in order to capture the needs of sei-katsu-sha in each country with a common index. These are the three points introduced below.

1. "Eco-awareness
As a response to the problem of plastic waste disposal, there has been a movement to use paper instead of plastic bags. In addition, supermarkets in Thailand and Vietnam have started using banana leaves to wrap plastic bags in order to reduce the amount of plastic used.

2. "Sense of security
Awareness of food safety is becoming stronger. Globalization and the spread of smartphones have made it easier to obtain information from abroad, and people are becoming more concerned about hygiene issues such as the outbreak of hog cholera. The popularity of organic food in many countries is also a trend toward food safety.

3. "Comfort".
As the term "leapfrog phenomenon" (*) implies, convenient apps such as Uber and Grab are rapidly becoming popular as they make life more comfortable by eliminating inconveniences caused by digitalization. As in developed countries, there is a growing interest in automated driving.

The leapfrog phenomenon refers to the rapid spread of new services in emerging countries where the existing social infrastructure is not yet in place, surpassing the technological progress made in developed countries.

What these three keywords have in common is that they are the elements that will make our lives "smarter. So, in this interview, let's try to predict the changes in sei-katsu-sha values based on these three "smart" keywords.

India's Continuing Growth: What Will Happen in 10 Years?

India's Future. How do the experts in each industry see it?
First, let's take a look at some basic information about India. India has a land area of 3.29 million square kilometers, which is about 8.8 times that of Japan, and a population of 1,210.57 million, which is about 9.6 times that of Japan, making it the second largest country in the world in terms of both land area and population, almost 10 times that of Japan. In addition, with a real GDP growth rate of 6.7% in 2018, it is a very attractive market for companies.

The following experts active in India spoke about the Indian market and its sei-katsu-sha (Figure 1).

Chart 1

The experts talked about how they perceive the "market" and "sei-katsu-sha" in the "present" and how important the aforementioned three purchase focuses are as success factors in the market. Similarly, the local researcher also interviewed how each of these factors is likely to change in "3 years" and "10 years". The following is an analysis and discussion based on the results.

India Today

Chart 2 shows the comments that each person made about the current "market" in India.

Chart 2

Most people believe that the market is growing, but I get the impression that it is maturing but steady growth rather than vigorous growth. Since the time of this interview was before the general election, some people were concerned about the impact of unstable politics on the economy, but since the current government, which is committed to economic growth through "Modinomics," won an overwhelming victory, the economy is expected to continue to grow steadily.

Next, we asked the respondents to describe the current "sei-katsu-sha," and their comments are shown in Chart 3.

Chart 3

The common view is that technological advancements and digitization have made people more knowledgeable and smarter, and their need for higher quality in products and services has become stronger.

Exhibit 4 shows the average score of each of the aforementioned purchase priorities analyzed to see how much importance they are given by consumers as factors for success in India today.

Chart 4

The current situation is that comfort is the most important factor, while security and eco-consciousness are less important at the moment.
The background to the emphasis on "comfort" is the fact that in India today, various services centered on smartphones are provided and widely used by consumers at the same level as in developed countries. This trend is expected to accelerate in the future, and the "leapfrog phenomenon" is expected to be seen in a wide range of service areas.

India in Three Years

Chart 5 shows the results of asking people to talk about the Indian "market" in three years.

Chart 5

Since the interview was before the general elections, some commentators are saying that it depends on the outcome of the elections. However, since the Indian People's Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Modi, won the 2019 general elections, the political situation will be in a stable phase for a while during the next five years, and the Indian market is expected to continue to grow steadily. There are also expectations of India's growing presence in the world.

When asked to make predictions about the "sei-katsu-sha" of three years from now, respondents indicated that their standard of living will increase with continued economic growth and that they will demand "better" products and services. (Chart 6)

Chart 6

At this time, while the need for "comfort" will remain strong, "peace of mind" and "eco-consciousness" will be higher than at present, and the forecast is that we will see signs of diversification in values (Chart 7).

Chart 7

At present, India is in a situation where the top few brands in many product categories account for 70-80% of the market share. However, in the near future, as values diversify and consumer needs become more diverse, service providers are likely to start developing products and services that are tailored to specific target groups. The Indian society has a strong word-of-mouth culture.

Indian society has a strong word-of-mouth culture, so the use of mini-influencers with loud voices will be the key to revitalizing products and services.

India in 10 years

Experts in India predict that economic growth will continue for the next 10 years as growth generates further growth, as shown in Chart 8.

Chart 8

However, there were still references to the impact of politics on the economy, and it seems that we need to follow the political situation in India closely when considering the Indian economy.

In terms of the "sei-katsu-sha" of 10 years from now, the keyword "health" was mentioned by many experts (Figure 9). In addition, there is a noticeable prediction of increased modernization and more choices for the sei-katsu-sha.

Chart 9

As sei-katsu-sha have more choices, the range of needs will consequently expand, and the need for "peace of mind" and "eco-awareness" will also increase (Figure 10).

Chart 10

Ten years from now, while people's lives will become more convenient due to higher income levels and digitalization, various social problems will become more apparent, as many developing countries have experienced. It is predicted that business opportunities will emerge in a variety of areas that combine food, clothing, housing, health, and the environment.
On the other hand, it is expected that traditional culture and values will be inherited.

What are the common trends in the near future of the four Asian countries?

Finally, I would like to introduce the common trends in the market environment and sei-katsu-sha needs as analyzed by the local resident researchers in each country based on the survey results of the four countries including India.

First of all, there are four common trends in the market environment: favorable business confidence, digitization, improvement in quantity and quality of life, and globalization.

The advancement of digitalization has a great impact on the evolution of the services we can receive, but it also accelerates globalization by enabling us to obtain information from other countries through social media, and to connect our brains between countries by sending out information. As a result, "good and inexpensive products" including those made in foreign countries will be distributed in the market, and the "improvement in quantity and quality of life" will progress, promoting "good business confidence.

In the midst of these changes in the environment, the following common trends are expected to emerge as countries become more homogeneous, starting with the smartphone.

1. Relentless pursuit of better
As more and more good products are released to meet the needs of "high quality," "low cost," "simplicity," "customization," and "beauty and health," and as information on the evolution of products in other countries is obtained in parallel, it is likely that people will become even more greedy for "better" products.

2. Stress-free pursuit
Each country is becoming more globalized and capitalistic, and living environments are changing as work becomes busier and human relationships become more complex, resulting in more stress. For this reason, it is predicted that the pursuit of a stress-free life will grow.

3. Awareness that "time is more than money" (emphasis on time)
The shift from a leisurely lifestyle to a time-pressed lifestyle will lead to a renewed appreciation of the value of time and an increased need to make the most of the time spent traveling and waiting.

Asia is still changing. It will be necessary for business success to skillfully incorporate the new trends that emerge as a result of change into products and services.

The outline of this survey is as follows.
●Survey method: In-depth Interview
●Survey period: January to March 2019
●Survey targets: Managers and above working in various industries or experts.
●The survey was conducted by :

Intage Thailand https://www.intage-thailand.com/
Intage Vietnam https://www.intage.com.vn/
Intage Indonesia http://www.intage-indonesia.com/
Intage India http://intage-india.com/

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• Jul 10, 2019
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