imagesColumn

[Vietnam] Household consumption precedes economic recovery, esp. from young people in Hanoi

images

Vietnam's CPI (base value 100) rose in the second half of last year, reaching its highest value of 117.86 in January 2020. However, it has since fallen back down due to the new Corona, to 115.09 in May 2020, the same value as last November.

The Intage Vietnam Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (base value 100) also shows that personal confidence continues to be sluggish, falling from 77.56 (March 2020) to 69.54 (April 2020) and 68.60 (May 2020). However, household business sentiment has recovered from its lowest point of 84.24 (March 2020) to 91.65 (May 2020).

Since the index becomes "sluggish" when it falls below 95 points, it is only a matter of time before household confidence breaks out of its slump.


Although there are some positive signs, consumer spending is still cautious.
According to a consumer survey on the new coronavirus conducted by Intage Vietnam at the end of April 2020 (a total of 200 people aged 18-59 in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi), hope for the end of the new coronavirus is already apparent. When asked about the situation one month from now, about 80% of the respondents answered "will improve," a combination of "slightly improve" and "completely improve," an increase of more than 10% since we conducted the same survey in early March.

At this rate, household business sentiment is expected to break out of its "slump" in June. A detailed analysis of the May survey shows that the scores by age group were 73.41 for 18-29 year olds and 52.27 for 30-39 year olds, while the scores by city were 74.54 for Hanoi and 62.60 for Ho Chi Minh City. Personal business confidence may begin to change attitudes from "young people" in "Hanoi".

Source: ACCESS, a monthly magazine (July 2020 issue)

  • Intage Inc

    Author profile
    (Mr.) Masami Negishi

    He is the Managing Director of INTAGE VN. After taking charge of overseas research at INTAGE Japan, he was engaged in supporting INTAGE INDIA. After that, he was transferred to INTAGE VN, where he has been since November 2015. He has given many lectures and conference papers, and holds an MBA. For more information on the report, search "VIEVIEW" on the web service slideShare.
    For other columns by Vietnamese expatriates click here

  • Intage Inc

    Editor profile
    Intage Inc.

    ＊＊＊

  • Dec 04, 2020
  • 1457 Views

Reproducing and quotation
  • The copyright of this report/column is held by Intage Inc. or the company to which the author belongs. Please confirm the following prohibitions and cautions, and specify the source when reproducing or quoting.
    Example:
    "Source: Intage's Research Report "(Report title) (issued on DD/MM/YYYY)"
    "Source: Global Market Surfer, article published on DD/MM/YYYY"
  • Prohibiton:
    • Modification of part or all of the contents
    • Sale or publication of part or all of the contents
    • Use that is offensive to public order and morals or that leads to illegal activities
    • Reprpducing or quotation for the purpose of advertising or sales promotion of companies, products, or services.
  • Other cautions:
    • We are not responsible for any trouble, loss or damage caused by the use of this report.
    • These terms of use do not restrict the use of quotations, etc., which are permitted under the Copyright Act.
  • If you have any questions about reprinting or quotation, please contact us from here