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ColumnTo Win in Southeast Asia's E-Commerce Market ─ What's Needed Now is a Redesign of the Delivery Approach
- Release date: Dec 12, 2025
- Update date: Dec 12, 2025
- 85 Views
Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) continues to be discussed as the “next e-commerce growth market,” driven by GDP growth and digital penetration.
However, Chinese companies have already deeply penetrated these markets, establishing dominance through agile operational models and local adaptation.
The stage where “just launching products in a growth market guarantees sales” may be coming to an end.
This article examines the market structure of Southeast Asian e-commerce, then explores the strategies Japanese companies should adopt and the need to redesign how they deliver value.
目次
1. Southeast Asia, often called the “next market”
2. Cross-border e-commerce that is easy for Japanese companies to enter
3. Japanese Companies as Challengers — How to Demonstrate Value on the Evolving Playing Field
4. Designing Before Delivery Methods for Japanese Companies — Redefining “Who, What, and Why”
1. Southeast Asia, often called the “next market”
Southeast Asia is one of the fastest-growing consumer markets in recent years. Within Southeast Asia, GDP growth is projected to continue through 2030, particularly in Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines.
Figure 1: GDP Trends of ASEAN Countries (2025–2030 are estimated values)
Source: Gross domestic product (GDP) of the ASEAN countries from 2020 to 2030 (cited from Statista)
Looking at the population pyramids, we see that all countries have a thick base of young people, indicating that the generation poised to become the core consumers is already supporting the market's volume. For example, Indonesia's population pyramid shows a very thick layer under the age of 20, suggesting further market growth can be expected in the future.
Figure 2: Indonesia's Population Pyramid (2025)
Source: Created based on World Population Prospects
Furthermore, smartphone penetration rates in Southeast Asia are rising year by year, and are projected to reach approximately 70% by 2025.
Figure 3: Smartphone Penetration Rate Trends in Southeast Asia (2025–2029 are estimated values)
Source: Smartphone penetration rate in Southeast Asia from 2014 to 2029 (Source: Statista)
Low communication costs have also been a tailwind, making information gathering via social media and video increasingly commonplace. By 2024, the proportion of e-commerce users exceeded 50% in Thailand (69.2%), Vietnam (60.6%), and Indonesia (58.0%), demonstrating that e-commerce has become firmly established as one purchasing channel for consumers.
Figure 4: E-commerce Penetration Rates in Southeast Asian Countries (2024)
Source: E-commerce penetration rate in Southeast Asia in 2024 (Source: Statista)
The e-commerce market size in each country continues to expand annually. By 2024, Indonesia will be Southeast Asia's largest market at approximately US$65 billion (about ¥10 trillion), followed by Thailand at US$26 billion (about ¥4 trillion) and Vietnam at US$22 billion (about ¥3.4 trillion). By 2030, Indonesia is projected to expand to US$150 billion (approximately ¥23 trillion), while Vietnam is expected to reach US$63 billion (approximately ¥9.8 trillion), among others, indicating further growth.
Figure 5: Southeast Asia E-commerce Market Size Trends (2030 is an estimated value)
Source: Southeast Asia E-commerce Market Size Trends (2022–2024, 2030 Forecast, by Country) (Source: Statista)
In this way, the combination of economy, population, and digital environment is giving Southeast Asia the depth to be called the “next growth market” by the world.
2. Cross-border e-commerce that is easy for Japanese companies to enter
As we've seen, with Southeast Asia's market potential growing, cross-border e-commerce—conducting e-commerce transactions across national borders—has been expanding in recent years. It has already gained traction in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia's cross-border e-commerce ratio reaching approximately 25% in 2025 (Source: Domestic and cross-border e-commerce revenue share 2025, by country (cited from Statista)).
The expansion of cross-border e-commerce represents a tailwind for Japanese companies. Cross-border models eliminate the need for large inventories and allow testing product demand on a small scale, making it easier to manage entry risks. Furthermore, Japanese brands enjoy high trust in terms of quality, making them an “easy choice” for Southeast Asian consumers.
Furthermore, in 2024, the number of international visitors to Japan from Southeast Asia exceeded 4 million, reaching a record high (https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2025/01/a2f26a7c2b5ef818.html). Put another way, this means the experience of “actually using Japanese products” during their visit was brought back to Southeast Asia in unprecedented numbers. The fact that brand awareness isn't starting from zero represents a significant advantage for companies considering market entry.
3. Japanese Companies as Challengers — How to Demonstrate Value on the Evolving Playing Field
On the other hand, we cannot be overly optimistic. This is because major e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia are already dominated by Chinese capital. Major platforms like Shopee (formerly SEA, which was backed by Chinese capital), Lazada (Alibaba), and TikTok Shop (ByteDance) all exhibit strong control by Chinese companies, accounting for the majority of their gross merchandise value (GMV).
Figure 6: Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) Trends by Platform in Southeast Asia
Source: Gross merchandise value (GMV) of leading e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia
from 2020 to 2024 (Source: Statista)
Looking at categories, Chinese brands rank in the top 20 across many sectors including beauty, stationery, and outdoor gear (Reference: https://ecnomikata.com/column/46974/).
They excel at deploying large teams of locally hired staff to rapidly execute social media campaigns, live commerce, and ad optimization.
By the time Japanese companies consider entering the market, these Chinese brands have already established their “optimal strategies” within each platform.
Japanese companies must step onto this playing field as “challengers.”
So, how should they deliver value in this environment? ― The next step is to rethink the design: “Where to deliver? What to deliver? And why?”
4. Designing Before Delivery Methods for Japanese Companies — Redefining “Who, What, and Why”
First, we must break free from the mindset of “competing under the same rules.”
Imitating the model of Chinese brands—massively investing in advertising to rapidly boost sales—is unrealistic for Japanese companies operating with limited resources.
That's precisely why the key lies in redefining the very ‘design’ itself: “Who to reach, with what, and why.”
Competition today is no longer just about product quality; it's a battle of “meaning” – “what value, in what context, to which target audience.”
Our overseas panel data, “Overseas Consumer Purchase Data,” allows us to understand purchasing trends among Southeast Asian consumers, such as:
- Which product categories
- Through which channels
- And at what price points
they are purchasing.
Furthermore, by leveraging Nint Southeast Asia E-commerce Data,
we can capture the “sales frontlines” through data, revealing:
* Which countries and platforms
* Which brands
* Are actually performing
* At which price points and SKUs (※).
※ The smallest manageable unit in inventory control, distinguishing variations like size, packaging, and color.
In other words, before searching for “reasons why it sells,” the key lies in understanding the market structure—what is selling, where it is selling, and how it is selling—from both the consumer and sales perspectives. Only then can you “design” how to leverage your company's strengths and where to compete.
At INTAGE, we combine data with local insights to support the “visualization of market structures” that forms the foundation of e-commerce strategy. This serves as the starting point for strategy design and provides the essential foundation for Japanese companies to build winning strategies in this market.
To achieve results in Southeast Asian e-commerce, why not start by building this essential foundation for strategy formulation?
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Author profile
Mayumi Koyama
For 11 years starting in 2012, I supported domestic marketing activities for Japanese and foreign FMCG manufacturers. Since 2023 in my current role, I have been responsible for sourcing and deploying overseas panel data, particularly e-commerce panel data from China and Southeast Asia, primarily supporting data utilization in the overseas e-commerce domain.
Multilingual learning and cultural observation are daily habits; deciphering the world through language is my life's work. -
Editor profile
Risa Takahama
After working in marketing research support for Japanese FMCG manufacturers (cosmetics, baby products, food and beverages, etc.) in Asia, Europe, and the U.S., from 2019, in his current position, he develops solutions for overseas marketing research for Japanese companies and conducts seminars and other outward communications.